Abortion’s Impact on Democrats: Key Takeaways from Tuesday’s Elections

Despite President Biden’s low popularity, his party’s winning streak continues in another election night.

The Impact of Abortion Rights on Recent Elections: Key Insights and Implications

In Tuesday’s off-year elections, the influence of abortion rights in the political landscape proved to be more compelling than President Biden’s approval ratings. In Ohio, a right to abortion was enshrined in the state’s constitution, while in Virginia, Democrats secured control of both chambers of the General Assembly and retained the governorship in Kentucky.

These election results underscore the enduring strength of the Democrats’ political momentum following the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, consequently, nullifying the constitutional protection for abortion rights. Moreover, these results might temporarily alleviate the recent concerns among Democrats stemming from various polls highlighting President Biden’s political vulnerabilities.

With a successful midterm performance last year, a resounding victory in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race in April, and a series of special election triumphs, Democrats are entering Mr. Biden’s re-election campaign with a favorable tailwind. The pivotal challenge for the party lies in harnessing this momentum to benefit President Biden, who remains less popular, even as others promoting his agenda have found electoral success.

Let’s consider the essential insights from Tuesday:

Abortion has proven to be a potent factor in favor of Democrats.

Democratic leaders have long emphasized that the battle for abortion rights is a significant motivator for their supporters and can sway many Republicans to vote for Democratic candidates.

In the recent Tuesday elections, they found fresh evidence to support this claim. Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky, who criticized his opponent’s stance on the state’s near-total abortion ban, secured a victory. Legislative candidates in Virginia, who opposed the proposed 15-week abortion ban by Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, also triumphed. The Ohio referendum establishing a right to abortion access was a significant win. In addition, a Pennsylvania Supreme Court candidate, Daniel McCaffery, who championed abortion rights, won, further solidifying Democrats’ position with a 5-2 majority.

Abortion has become such a dominant issue for Democrats that even Everytown, the gun control organization backed by Michael Bloomberg, focused its TV ads in Virginia on promoting abortion rights before addressing gun violence.

Notably, the anti-abortion Democratic candidate who ran for governor in Mississippi, Brandon Presley, didn’t meet expectations.

This signals that regardless of President Biden’s current standing, the political landscape and the issues at play strongly favor Democrats who support abortion access and oppose Republicans who endorse bans.

Historically, the party that wins the Kentucky governor’s election has also won the subsequent presidential election. While the President may not be able to replicate Mr. Beshear’s approach of promoting Biden’s policies without mentioning the President’s name, there are now examples of what a winning strategy could look like for the 2024 election.

In Virginia, a Republican on the rise has faced a setback.

Governor Youngkin had high hopes that a strong showing by his party would significantly boost his profile as the Republican leader who successfully shifted an increasingly Democratic state back to Republican territory. This would have put him squarely in the conversation for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, if not even in 2024.

However, Mr. Youngkin’s commitment to enacting what he described as a moderate abortion law—a 15-week abortion ban with exceptions for cases of rape, incest, or when the mother’s life is at risk—handed Democrats an effective response as he aimed for complete control of the state government.

In part, the Democratic argument prevailed. The party secured the majority in the House of Delegates, maintained control of the State Senate, and definitely put a damper on Mr. Youngkin’s aspirations. These results provided further evidence to anxious national Democrats of abortion’s potency as a motivator for their supporters, while also disrupting Mr. Youngkin’s plans for his remaining two years in office and potentially his political future beyond that.

A Democrat can indeed win in the deeply conservative state of Kentucky, as long as he goes by the name of Andy Beshear.

Turns out, being the most well-liked governor in the entire nation is a pretty great advantage if you’re aiming for re-election.

Throughout his first term and his re-election campaign, Mr. Beshear kept his focus on local concerns like increasing teacher salaries, initiating new infrastructure projects, guiding the state through the challenges of the pandemic and natural disasters, and, especially since the Supreme Court’s decision last year to overturn Roe v. Wade, opposing his state’s complete abortion ban.

This laser-like focus on local issues effectively shielded him from political attacks when his Republican opponent, Attorney General Daniel Cameron, backed by former President Donald J. Trump, tried to turn the campaign into a national battleground. They attempted to boost Republican turnout by linking Mr. Beshear with President Biden and targeting him on issues related to crime and LGBTQ rights. (It’s worth noting that Mr. Beshear vetoed new regulations aimed at transgender youth, but GOP lawmakers voted to override his veto.)

It’s not that Republican voters stayed at home; in fact, all the other Republicans running for statewide positions secured victory with at least 57 percent of the vote. Mr. Beshear simply managed to convince enough of them to support his gubernatorial bid. A Democrat who can win over Republican voters without compromising on matters important to liberal constituents is a model the rest of the party will be eager to follow in red states and districts across the country.

Attempts to undermine transgender rights fell short.

While abortion access has emerged as the primary issue galvanizing Democrats, and same-sex marriage has gained widespread acceptance in America, Republicans searching for a cause to rally social conservatives around turned their attention to restricting the rights of transgender individuals. However, on Tuesday, these efforts didn’t yield the desired results.

In Kentucky, Mr. Cameron and his Republican allies invested over $5 million in television ads targeting LGBTQ rights and Mr. Beshear for his advocacy of these rights, as reported by AdImpact, a firm that monitors political advertising. Meanwhile, in Mississippi, Governor Tate Reeves allocated $1.2 million for anti-LGBTQ ads, and Republican candidates running for legislative positions in Virginia collectively spent $527,000 on TV ads focused on this issue.

Notably, in Virginia, Danica Roem, a member of the House of Delegates, secured victory and will become the South’s first transgender state senator. She defeated a former Fairfax County police detective who supported policies to prevent transgender athletes from participating in high school sports.

In Ohio, voters expressed their support for both abortion rights and recreational marijuana.

Once again, Ohioans have demonstrated the widespread appeal of abortion rights, even in states that typically lean Republican. They overwhelmingly approved a constitutional amendment affirming the right to abortion.

The Ohio vote may serve as a sign of things to come in the upcoming presidential election season, as proponents and opponents of abortion rights aim to bring this issue to the forefront in critical battleground states such as Florida, Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania.

Abortion rights groups had been on a winning streak leading up to Tuesday, with successful ballot measures following the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade last year. Ohio voters, like their predecessors, chose to safeguard the right to abortion in their state.

Interestingly, Ohioans also voted to legalize recreational marijuana use, with a margin of support nearly identical to the abortion vote. This decision will make Ohio the 24th state to do so.

In an election where abortion wasn’t a central issue, a Republican candidate secured an easy victory.

Mississippi’s gubernatorial race was a notable exception to the abortion-focused dynamics of this off-year election. The incumbent governor, Mr. Reeves, and his Democratic challenger, Mr. Presley, both campaigned as staunch opponents of abortion rights.

In this race, however, the Democratic candidate fell short. Mr. Presley aimed to make the Mississippi race competitive by linking the incumbent to a public corruption scandal involving the misappropriation of $94 million in federal funds meant for Mississippi’s underprivileged, which were used for projects like a college volleyball facility supported by retired NFL quarterback Brett Favre. He also advocated for expanding Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act to rescue Mississippi’s struggling rural hospitals.

Despite Mr. Presley’s efforts, Mr. Reeves enjoyed three formidable advantages that proved insurmountable: his incumbency, the “R” denoting his party affiliation on the ballot, and the endorsement of Mr. Trump, who had won Mississippi in the 2020 election by nearly 17 percentage points.

In Kentucky, in races beneath the high-profile governor’s contest, Democrats also chose not to make abortion a focal point in their campaigns, and like Mr. Presley, they faced defeat.

Rhode Island elects a former Biden aide to the House.

Rhode Island, while not typically a swing state, managed to brighten Mr. Biden’s day by electing Gabe Amo to one of its two House seats. This move is particularly noteworthy because Mr. Amo previously served as a deputy director in the White House office of intergovernmental affairs, making him the first Biden White House aide to ascend to Congress.

Mr. Amo’s victory holds extra significance as the son of African immigrants, making him the first Black representative from the Ocean State.

White House officials reported that the president extended his congratulations to his former aide on this significant win. This special election was necessary to fill the seat left vacant by David Cicilline, a Democrat who departed to lead a nonprofit organization.

By: M Z Hossain, Editor Sky Buzz Feed